The results are in from Sunday’s Jersey election and they contain some genuine surprises, a political giant lost his seat, an outsider topped the poll, Ihe hospital contract was finally signed, and the case for party politics just got harder to make. Here’s what it means, viewed from across the water.
In my pre-election post last week I said Jersey’s 2026 election would be a test of whether the electorate wanted something genuinely different, or whether familiarity and experience would win out over fresh voices. As it turns out, it was a bit of both, but the headline story is the one nobody predicted: Reform Jersey’s leader Sam Mézec, the serving Housing Minister and arguably the most prominent progressive voice in island politics, has lost his seat.
That is not a small thing. Let’s work through what happened, what the results mean, and what signals, if any, they send to the new States Assembly.
The Results at a Glance
15,859 – VOTES FOR TOP SENATOR HELEN MILES
9,374 – MÉZEC VOTES — 2,197 SHORT OF 9TH PLACE
£710m – HOSPITAL CONTRACT SIGNED 2 DAYS BEFORE ELECTION
18 – AGE OF YOUNGEST ELECTED MEMBER, GABRIEL RAIMONDO
The Senatorial Ballot — Full Results
Jersey voters cast island-wide votes for nine Senators. With 17 candidates standing, the margin between those who made it and those who didn’t tells its own story.
Five Things the Results Tell Us
1. Experience, broadly defined, won the Senate
Look at the nine elected Senators and a pattern emerges. Helen Miles topped the poll with nearly 16,000 votes – a remarkable result for someone who, four years ago, was a first-time Deputy for St Brelade. But her result reflects experience of a certain kind: 30 years in public service, a high-profile ministerial term, and then a credible stint as opposition scrutineer when the government changed direction. She wasn’t the establishment candidate. She was the candidate who’d seen both sides of government and handled both well.
Ian Gorst comes second – the most internationally experienced politician in Jersey, and someone whose vote share in the rural parishes was consistently the highest throughout the night. Lyndon Farnham third, the sitting Chief Minister, seeking his mandate. Elaine Millar fourth, the Treasury Minister who made reinstating Senators her signature achievement.
What this Senate looks like is a broadly centrist, experience-heavy chamber with a bias towards fiscal discipline and financial services credibility. The two notable exceptions: Mary Le Hegarat (9th, first-time Senator) and Serena Kersten Guthrie (5th, entirely new to politics) are both significant in different ways.
2. The Mézec defeat is seismic — but nuanced
Sam Mézec received 9,374 votes. Mary Le Hegarat, who took the ninth and final seat, received 11,571. That gap of 2,197 votes, across an island-wide ballot, is not a cliff edge – it’s a margin that could have closed with the St Helier results, but did not.
Mézec has been the most prominent voice for social democratic politics in Jersey for over a decade. As Minister for Housing in the current term, he secured the ‘First Step’ homeownership scheme, new renter protections, and hundreds of new homes. His legislative record is real. The fact that the island-wide electorate chose not to send him to the Senate – while St Helier, where Reform Jersey is strongest, voted for him in large numbers – suggests something specific: his appeal is urban and concentrated, not island-wide.
There is a harder question lurking here too. Reform Jersey now has 7 seats, down from ten in the last Assembly. Mézec himself is out of the chamber entirely. That is not just a bad night. That is a party facing a structural question about whether its model – a left-leaning progressive party in a conservative-leaning island, is viable at scale.
Reform Jersey – The Numbers
In 2022, Reform Jersey held 10 seats in the States Assembly. As of the 2026 results, they are projected to hold between 3 and 5 seats, with St Helier counts still outstanding. Their leader has lost his seat. Their Education Minister (Rob Ward) lost his bid for Constable of St Helier. The party’s Deputy Leader Lyndsay Feltham’s result in St Helier Central is not yet confirmed. This is a significant reduction in their parliamentary presence.
3. The Kersten Guthrie result is the one to watch
Serena Kersten Guthrie, former England netball captain, political newcomer, and Value Jersey-aligned candidate, finished fifth – ahead of Tom Binet, Alan MacLean, Mark Boleat, and seven others, with 12,588 votes.
In my pre-election analysis I flagged her as the most unusual candidate in the field. That unusual quality clearly resonated. What does it mean?
Partly it’s biographical – a decorated athlete from a recognisable background brings a kind of credibility that professional politicians sometimes lack. Partly it’s the Value Jersey alignment – a loose grouping of candidates united around consumer choice, cheaper everyday costs, and cutting government waste. As parish results were being announced through the night she consistently came second or third.
Watch this closely: Value Jersey as a movement, not quite a party, more than a leaning, performed well enough across the Deputy elections too (Samantha Gleave topped the poll in St Helier South). If that cohesion persists into the new Assembly, it could constitute a real force: centre-right consumer economics, independent-minded, with populist energy behind it.
4. The hospital was signed just in time
Two days before election day, the Government confirmed that the main works contract for the new hospital at Overdale had been signed with Bouygues UK. The project has a budget of £710 million, making it the largest public infrastructure project in Jersey’s history, with delivery targeted before the end of 2028.
The timing was noted. Health Minister Tom Binet had warned in April that there was “no guarantee” the contract would be signed before the election. It was. Whether that influenced voters is impossible to say with certainty, but Binet finished sixth in the Senatorial poll – comfortably elected, with a vote share that reflects genuine public recognition of his work.
The new Assembly inherits this project. It will be the defining test of delivery for the incoming government: a £710m construction programme, a contractor whose UK arm has had financial difficulties, and a completion target set in the middle of the next term. The new Senators who promised to hold government to account on delivery will have no shortage of material.
The Hospital – Key Facts
Budget: £710 million (States Assembly approved).
Contractor:Bouygues UK (subsidiary of French construction giant Bouygues Construction — 400+ global healthcare projects).
Target completion: Before end of 2028.
Contract signed: 5 June 2026, two days before election day.
Outgoing minister: Tom Binet, elected Senator — will not be Health Minister by default in new government.
5. An 18-year-old was elected Deputy
Gabriel Raimondo, 18 years old, was elected as a Deputy for St Brelade, becoming the youngest member of the States Assembly. He received 1,603 votes, in a constituency also electing experienced candidates Jonathan Renouf (who topped the poll with 2,414 votes) and Reform Jersey’s Monty Tadier.
This is worth noting for reasons beyond the symbolism. Jersey has a voting age of 16. An 18-year-old Deputy is the logical extension of a political culture that takes youth participation seriously. Whether Raimondo proves effective is a question only time will answer, but his election sends a signal that constituency voters are willing to take a chance on someone whose principal qualification is that he is, himself, a young person with a stake in the decisions being made.
What the New Assembly Looks Like
The most significant question now is who becomes Chief Minister. Gorst has publicly said he will put himself forward for External Relations Minister again. Farnham has indicated he wants to continue as Chief Minister. But with Helen Miles topping the poll and Elaine Millar suggesting she would support Miles over competing against her, there is a genuine possibility of a female Chief Minister for the first time in Jersey’s history, if Miles chooses to put herself forward on 19 June.
The Messages for the New Assembly
Elections are often said to send messages. Jersey’s 2026 result sends several, and they are not all comfortable ones for the incoming government.
01 Delivery is the Mandate
The electorate returned experienced, recognisable politicians. Not radicals. That is a conservative choice — in the literal sense. It is a vote for getting things done, not for changing direction. The new government will be judged on what it delivers, not what it says.
02 The Cost of Living Cannot Wait
Value Jersey’s strong showing — from an outside newcomer no less — is a direct signal about affordability. Kersten Guthrie’s fifth place finish is a message: voters want cheaper choices, more competition, less government drag on everyday costs. The new Assembly ignores this at its peril.
03 The Left have been Pushed to the Margins
Reform Jersey’s collapse from ten seats to fewer than five is a fundamental shift. There is now very limited organised progressive representation in the Assembly. That may suit the new government; it makes meaningful scrutiny of housing and welfare policy harder.
04 The Hospital must now be Built
The contract is signed. The £710m is committed. Bouygues UK is on site. This is no longer a political football — it is a construction project with a deadline. The new Assembly must resist any temptation to relitigate decisions already made and focus on delivery.
05 GST is on the Agenda
Multiple losing candidates called for GST to be removed from food. The issue did not disappear; it simply wasn’t reflected in the Senate. A £710m hospital and infrastructure backlog means the fiscal question won’t go away. Jersey will need to have an honest conversation about how it pays for things.
06 Youth and Diversity are Visible
An 18-year-old Deputy. The first female Constable of St Helier. The island’s first Senator without a career political background in a generation. These are small steps, but they signal that the electorate is willing to widen the pool — when candidates make the case for themselves.
The View From Guernsey — What This Means for Us
I said in my pre-election post that Jersey’s issues are Guernsey’s issues. The results reinforce that. The centrist, experience-favouring outcome; the voter appetite for cost-of-living action; the grinding difficulty of delivering major infrastructure — none of that is peculiar to St Helier.
There is one result in particular that I think Guernsey should sit with. Sam Mézec — whatever you think of his politics — was the most prominent champion of progressive social policy in the Channel Islands for twelve years. He championed tenant rights, minimum wage rises, housing supply, and public accountability. He has now lost his seat in an island-wide ballot. That is partly about electoral arithmetic. But it is also a reflection of a political culture that is instinctively wary of structural reform, and which tends, when uncertain, to return to the familiar.
The question for Guernsey is not whether we share that instinct — we almost certainly do — but whether, when our own fiscal pressures force difficult decisions, we have the political infrastructure to navigate them well. An Assembly of independents, all elected on personal platforms, all instinctively cautious about being the one to say the uncomfortable thing, is not automatically well-equipped for that moment.
Jersey has its new government. The hospital contract is signed. The Chief Minister question will be resolved on 19 June. Whatever happens next, Sunday’s result suggests that the island wants steady hands on the wheel — and will hold them to account for what those hands actually build.
Jon Bond is Founder and CEO of Evans Bond Limited, an accountancy and advisory practice in Guernsey, and principal of Melius Consulting Limited – a business consultancy. He is also a non-executive chairman of CI Co-op and NED at Sark Shipping. The views expressed here are his own.
The View From Guernsey — What This Means for Us
I said in my pre-election post that Jersey’s issues are Guernsey’s issues. The results reinforce that: the centrist, experience-favouring outcome; the voter appetite for cost-of-living action; the grinding difficulty of delivering major infrastructure – none of which is peculiar to St Helier.
There is one result in particular that I think Guernsey should take note of. Sam Mézec, whatever you think of his politics, was the most prominent champion of progressive social policy in the Channel Islands for twelve years. He championed tenant rights, minimum wage rises, housing supply, and public accountability. He has now lost his seat in an island-wide ballot. That is partly about electoral arithmetic. But it is also a reflection of a political culture that is instinctively wary of structural reform, and which tends, when uncertain, to return to the familiar.
The question for Guernsey is not whether we share that instinct, we almost certainly do, but whether, when our own fiscal pressures force difficult decisions, we have the political infrastructure to navigate them well. An Assembly of independents, all elected on personal platforms, all instinctively cautious about being the one to say the uncomfortable thing, is not automatically well-equipped for that moment.
Jersey has its new government. The hospital contract is signed. The Chief Minister question will be resolved on 19 June. Whatever happens next, Sunday’s result suggests that the island wants steady hands on the wheel, and will hold them to account for what those hands actually build.
Jon Bond is Founder and CEO of Evans Bond Limited, an accountancy and advisory practice in Guernsey, and principal of Melius Consulting Limited – a business consultancy. He is also a non-executive chairman of CI Co-op and NED at Sark Shipping. The views expressed here are his own.
