Jon Bond

Small Island, Big Ideas

Category: Community

  • The GST Debate Goes to Half-Time: What Three Days in July Actually Settled

    The GST Debate Goes to Half-Time: What Three Days in July Actually Settled

    Guernsey’s biggest tax decision in a generation is now on a summer break. After three days of debate on 15–17 July, the States ran out of road before reaching a final vote on Policy & Resources’ tax reform package — the 3% GST, the accompanying income tax and social security changes, and the corporate tax extensions attached to it. Deputies will pick it back up on 30 September.

    That pause is worth reflecting on. Nothing has been decided, but a lot has already happened, and the shape of what’s left to debate has changed in ways that matter more than the headline “no vote yet” suggests.

    What was actually on the table

    P&R’s package, published in June, centres on a 3% GST alongside higher income tax allowances, a reformed lower income tax band, and modest extensions to corporate tax — including bringing the 10% rate to cover the full profits of regulated businesses. Taken together, the committee says the package raises about £42m a year gross, or roughly £39.5m net once running costs are stripped out. That is the number to hold onto, because most of what follows is a fight over how that £39.5m gets found and who carries it.

    The kill shots that didn’t land

    Three attempts to stop the package outright were all defeated in the first two days:

    • A sursis from Deputy Liam McKenna and Deputy Mark Helyar to delay the whole debate, pending a new States Treasurer’s advice and a clear-out of the Revenue Service’s backlog, fell narrowly, 17 votes to 22.
    • An amendment to drop GST from the package entirely (McKenna) was defeated more heavily, roughly 28 votes to 10.
    • A call for a binding referendum on GST (McKenna and Simon Vermeulen) was rejected 25 votes to 14.
    • A separate bid to scrap the package for a new Appropriations Committee tasked with finding savings first (Garry Collins and Haley Camp) lost 29 votes to 11.

    P&R came out of those votes able to say, fairly, that its core proposition is intact. Treasury lead Charles Parkinson told the Press he believed there was “clearly a majority in favour” of the package; P&R President Lindsay de Sausmarez was more circumspect but agreed the numbers looked to be there. Neither claim has been tested – the substantive vote hasn’t happened, but the pattern of the July votes doesn’t contradict it.

    What did land

    Three amendments were carried, and each of them changes what P&R will actually be implementing if the package eventually passes:

    1. A Child Responsibility Tax Allowance (Andy Sloan and Munazza Malik) – a direction to P&R to introduce a new income tax allowance for each dependent child. This wasn’t a request for a report; it was an instruction. Gavin St Pier made the sharper point in debate: this is a directive, not a study, and the most likely funding source for it is more revenue – quite possibly more GST.
    2. An instruction to investigate a flat tax rate as an alternative structure.
    3. A three-year cap on growth in total States expenditure, including social security spending, to inflation (Sloan, moved by Helyar in his absence), which passed by the narrowest margin of the sitting, 15 votes to 12.

    The spending cap is the one worth watching. It was framed as a discipline measure, but its scope, explicit inclusion of social security spending, not just departmental budgets, has already drawn a public warning from the Committee for Health & Social Care that it risks real-terms cuts to services, and Bailiwick Express has since run a fact-check on the more alarmist claims doing the rounds about pensions being at risk (their verdict: the amendment doesn’t force pension cuts, but it does tie ESS’s hands in a way that could force difficult trade-offs). This is exactly the kind of measure that sounds costless in a sound bite and isn’t: capping headline spending growth to inflation while service demand, health and care in particular, runs ahead of inflation is a structural squeeze, not a saving.

    There’s a genuine tension buried in July’s results that P&R will have to reconcile before September: deputies voted, in the same sitting, to add a new tax allowance (a cost) and to cap spending growth (a constraint on where new costs get absorbed). Both carried. Neither amendment’s proposers were required to reconcile them with each other, and it’s not obvious P&R’s £39.5m net figure survives both being implemented as instructed.

    The procedural oddity

    Under the Assembly’s normal rules, adjourned debates don’t reopen for new amendments. Officials have indicated they’ll take a different view here, effectively reopening the amendment window until 22 September – which all but guarantees the 22 amendments considered in July will be added to before the Assembly reconvenes. Deputies campaigning against GST, including Garry Collins, have already signalled they’re preparing further amendments over the recess.

    Reading the numbers

    The vote margins across July tell a story in themselves. The sursis and the flat “no GST” amendment both lost by comfortable double-digit margins – this is not an Assembly on the verge of rejecting reform outright, in the way it did in 2023. But the spending cap amendment passing 15–12 is a different kind of signal: on a genuinely contested, ideologically loaded question about the size and shape of government, the numbers are close enough that a handful of switched votes moves outcomes. If the substantive GST vote in September comes down to a margin like that, this is not settled business, whatever the confidence from Treasury and P&R leadership suggests.

    What to watch for in September

    • Whether P&R chooses to adjust its own package before the debate resumes, as de Sausmarez has hinted is possible, rather than defend it unamended against a fresh round of amendments.
    • How P&R proposes to reconcile the child tax allowance and the spending cap, both now carried, both pulling in opposite directions on the same £39.5m.
    • Whether the reopened amendment window produces anything that changes the arithmetic, rather than simply adding volume to an already long list.
    • The roughly ten to eleven amendments left over from July that still haven’t been debated at all.

    None of this changes the structural point that’s been the throughline of this year’s tax debate: Guernsey has a funding gap that isn’t going away, reserves that are being run down to cover it, and a package on the table that raises real revenue but does so by reshaping who pays and how. Three days in July didn’t answer whether the States will accept that reshaping. It mostly confirmed that the fight over the details, allowances, caps, who bears the transition, may end up mattering as much as the headline GST number itself.

    Sources: Guernsey Parliament (parliament.gg), States Meeting 15 July 2026, Billet d’État XII; Guernsey Press, 15–22 July 2026 and 17 August 2026; Bailiwick Express, July 2026; States of Guernsey, “2026 Tax Reform Package published.”

    Jon Bond is Founder and CEO of Evans Bond Limited, an accountancy and advisory practice in Guernsey, and principal of Melius Consulting Limited – a business consultancy. He is also a non-executive chairman of CI Co-op and Sark Shipping. The views expressed here are his own.

  • Jersey Voted. What Did It Say?

    Jersey Voted. What Did It Say?

    The results are in from Sunday’s Jersey election and they contain some genuine surprises, a political giant lost his seat, an outsider topped the poll, Ihe hospital contract was finally signed, and the case for party politics just got harder to make. Here’s what it means, viewed from across the water.

    In my pre-election post last week I said Jersey’s 2026 election would be a test of whether the electorate wanted something genuinely different, or whether familiarity and experience would win out over fresh voices. As it turns out, it was a bit of both, but the headline story is the one nobody predicted: Reform Jersey’s leader Sam Mézec, the serving Housing Minister and arguably the most prominent progressive voice in island politics, has lost his seat.

    That is not a small thing. Let’s work through what happened, what the results mean, and what signals, if any, they send to the new States Assembly.

    The Results at a Glance

    15,859 – VOTES FOR TOP SENATOR HELEN MILES

    9,374 – MÉZEC VOTES — 2,197 SHORT OF 9TH PLACE

    £710m – HOSPITAL CONTRACT SIGNED 2 DAYS BEFORE ELECTION

    18 – AGE OF YOUNGEST ELECTED MEMBER, GABRIEL RAIMONDO

    The Senatorial Ballot — Full Results

    Jersey voters cast island-wide votes for nine Senators. With 17 candidates standing, the margin between those who made it and those who didn’t tells its own story.

    Senatorial Votes

    Five Things the Results Tell Us

    1. Experience, broadly defined, won the Senate

    Look at the nine elected Senators and a pattern emerges. Helen Miles topped the poll with nearly 16,000 votes – a remarkable result for someone who, four years ago, was a first-time Deputy for St Brelade. But her result reflects experience of a certain kind: 30 years in public service, a high-profile ministerial term, and then a credible stint as opposition scrutineer when the government changed direction. She wasn’t the establishment candidate. She was the candidate who’d seen both sides of government and handled both well.

    Ian Gorst comes second – the most internationally experienced politician in Jersey, and someone whose vote share in the rural parishes was consistently the highest throughout the night. Lyndon Farnham third, the sitting Chief Minister, seeking his mandate. Elaine Millar fourth, the Treasury Minister who made reinstating Senators her signature achievement.

    What this Senate looks like is a broadly centrist, experience-heavy chamber with a bias towards fiscal discipline and financial services credibility. The two notable exceptions: Mary Le Hegarat (9th, first-time Senator) and Serena Kersten Guthrie (5th, entirely new to politics) are both significant in different ways.

    Elected Senators

    2. The Mézec defeat is seismic — but nuanced

    Sam Mézec received 9,374 votes. Mary Le Hegarat, who took the ninth and final seat, received 11,571. That gap of 2,197 votes, across an island-wide ballot, is not a cliff edge – it’s a margin that could have closed with the St Helier results, but did not.

    Mézec has been the most prominent voice for social democratic politics in Jersey for over a decade. As Minister for Housing in the current term, he secured the ‘First Step’ homeownership scheme, new renter protections, and hundreds of new homes. His legislative record is real. The fact that the island-wide electorate chose not to send him to the Senate – while St Helier, where Reform Jersey is strongest, voted for him in large numbers – suggests something specific: his appeal is urban and concentrated, not island-wide.

    There is a harder question lurking here too. Reform Jersey now has 7 seats, down from ten in the last Assembly. Mézec himself is out of the chamber entirely. That is not just a bad night. That is a party facing a structural question about whether its model – a left-leaning progressive party in a conservative-leaning island, is viable at scale.

    Reform Jersey – The Numbers

    In 2022, Reform Jersey held 10 seats in the States Assembly. As of the 2026 results, they are projected to hold between 3 and 5 seats, with St Helier counts still outstanding. Their leader has lost his seat. Their Education Minister (Rob Ward) lost his bid for Constable of St Helier. The party’s Deputy Leader Lyndsay Feltham’s result in St Helier Central is not yet confirmed. This is a significant reduction in their parliamentary presence.

    3. The Kersten Guthrie result is the one to watch

    Serena Kersten Guthrie, former England netball captain, political newcomer, and Value Jersey-aligned candidate, finished fifth – ahead of Tom Binet, Alan MacLean, Mark Boleat, and seven others, with 12,588 votes.

    In my pre-election analysis I flagged her as the most unusual candidate in the field. That unusual quality clearly resonated. What does it mean?

    Partly it’s biographical – a decorated athlete from a recognisable background brings a kind of credibility that professional politicians sometimes lack. Partly it’s the Value Jersey alignment – a loose grouping of candidates united around consumer choice, cheaper everyday costs, and cutting government waste. As parish results were being announced through the night she consistently came second or third.

    Watch this closely: Value Jersey as a movement, not quite a party, more than a leaning, performed well enough across the Deputy elections too (Samantha Gleave topped the poll in St Helier South). If that cohesion persists into the new Assembly, it could constitute a real force: centre-right consumer economics, independent-minded, with populist energy behind it.

    4. The hospital was signed just in time

    Two days before election day, the Government confirmed that the main works contract for the new hospital at Overdale had been signed with Bouygues UK. The project has a budget of £710 million, making it the largest public infrastructure project in Jersey’s history, with delivery targeted before the end of 2028.

    The timing was noted. Health Minister Tom Binet had warned in April that there was “no guarantee” the contract would be signed before the election. It was. Whether that influenced voters is impossible to say with certainty, but Binet finished sixth in the Senatorial poll – comfortably elected, with a vote share that reflects genuine public recognition of his work.

    The new Assembly inherits this project. It will be the defining test of delivery for the incoming government: a £710m construction programme, a contractor whose UK arm has had financial difficulties, and a completion target set in the middle of the next term. The new Senators who promised to hold government to account on delivery will have no shortage of material.

    The Hospital – Key Facts

    Budget: £710 million (States Assembly approved).

    Contractor:Bouygues UK (subsidiary of French construction giant Bouygues Construction — 400+ global healthcare projects).

    Target completion: Before end of 2028.

    Contract signed: 5 June 2026, two days before election day.

    Outgoing minister: Tom Binet, elected Senator — will not be Health Minister by default in new government.

    5. An 18-year-old was elected Deputy

    Gabriel Raimondo, 18 years old, was elected as a Deputy for St Brelade, becoming the youngest member of the States Assembly. He received 1,603 votes, in a constituency also electing experienced candidates Jonathan Renouf (who topped the poll with 2,414 votes) and Reform Jersey’s Monty Tadier.

    This is worth noting for reasons beyond the symbolism. Jersey has a voting age of 16. An 18-year-old Deputy is the logical extension of a political culture that takes youth participation seriously. Whether Raimondo proves effective is a question only time will answer, but his election sends a signal that constituency voters are willing to take a chance on someone whose principal qualification is that he is, himself, a young person with a stake in the decisions being made.

    What the New Assembly Looks Like

    The most significant question now is who becomes Chief Minister. Gorst has publicly said he will put himself forward for External Relations Minister again. Farnham has indicated he wants to continue as Chief Minister. But with Helen Miles topping the poll and Elaine Millar suggesting she would support Miles over competing against her, there is a genuine possibility of a female Chief Minister for the first time in Jersey’s history, if Miles chooses to put herself forward on 19 June.

    The Messages for the New Assembly

    Elections are often said to send messages. Jersey’s 2026 result sends several, and they are not all comfortable ones for the incoming government.

    01 Delivery is the Mandate

    The electorate returned experienced, recognisable politicians. Not radicals. That is a conservative choice — in the literal sense. It is a vote for getting things done, not for changing direction. The new government will be judged on what it delivers, not what it says.

    02 The Cost of Living Cannot Wait

    Value Jersey’s strong showing — from an outside newcomer no less — is a direct signal about affordability. Kersten Guthrie’s fifth place finish is a message: voters want cheaper choices, more competition, less government drag on everyday costs. The new Assembly ignores this at its peril.

    03 The Left have been Pushed to the Margins

    Reform Jersey’s collapse from ten seats to fewer than five is a fundamental shift. There is now very limited organised progressive representation in the Assembly. That may suit the new government; it makes meaningful scrutiny of housing and welfare policy harder.

    04 The Hospital must now be Built

    The contract is signed. The £710m is committed. Bouygues UK is on site. This is no longer a political football — it is a construction project with a deadline. The new Assembly must resist any temptation to relitigate decisions already made and focus on delivery.

    05 GST is on the Agenda

    Multiple losing candidates called for GST to be removed from food. The issue did not disappear; it simply wasn’t reflected in the Senate. A £710m hospital and infrastructure backlog means the fiscal question won’t go away. Jersey will need to have an honest conversation about how it pays for things.

    06 Youth and Diversity are Visible

    An 18-year-old Deputy. The first female Constable of St Helier. The island’s first Senator without a career political background in a generation. These are small steps, but they signal that the electorate is willing to widen the pool — when candidates make the case for themselves.

    The View From Guernsey — What This Means for Us

    I said in my pre-election post that Jersey’s issues are Guernsey’s issues. The results reinforce that. The centrist, experience-favouring outcome; the voter appetite for cost-of-living action; the grinding difficulty of delivering major infrastructure — none of that is peculiar to St Helier.

    There is one result in particular that I think Guernsey should sit with. Sam Mézec — whatever you think of his politics — was the most prominent champion of progressive social policy in the Channel Islands for twelve years. He championed tenant rights, minimum wage rises, housing supply, and public accountability. He has now lost his seat in an island-wide ballot. That is partly about electoral arithmetic. But it is also a reflection of a political culture that is instinctively wary of structural reform, and which tends, when uncertain, to return to the familiar.

    The question for Guernsey is not whether we share that instinct — we almost certainly do — but whether, when our own fiscal pressures force difficult decisions, we have the political infrastructure to navigate them well. An Assembly of independents, all elected on personal platforms, all instinctively cautious about being the one to say the uncomfortable thing, is not automatically well-equipped for that moment.

    Jersey has its new government. The hospital contract is signed. The Chief Minister question will be resolved on 19 June. Whatever happens next, Sunday’s result suggests that the island wants steady hands on the wheel — and will hold them to account for what those hands actually build.

    Jon Bond is Founder and CEO of Evans Bond Limited, an accountancy and advisory practice in Guernsey, and principal of Melius Consulting Limited – a business consultancy. He is also a non-executive chairman of CI Co-op and NED at Sark Shipping. The views expressed here are his own.

    The View From Guernsey — What This Means for Us

    I said in my pre-election post that Jersey’s issues are Guernsey’s issues. The results reinforce that: the centrist, experience-favouring outcome; the voter appetite for cost-of-living action; the grinding difficulty of delivering major infrastructure – none of which is peculiar to St Helier.

    There is one result in particular that I think Guernsey should take note of. Sam Mézec, whatever you think of his politics, was the most prominent champion of progressive social policy in the Channel Islands for twelve years. He championed tenant rights, minimum wage rises, housing supply, and public accountability. He has now lost his seat in an island-wide ballot. That is partly about electoral arithmetic. But it is also a reflection of a political culture that is instinctively wary of structural reform, and which tends, when uncertain, to return to the familiar.

    The question for Guernsey is not whether we share that instinct, we almost certainly do, but whether, when our own fiscal pressures force difficult decisions, we have the political infrastructure to navigate them well. An Assembly of independents, all elected on personal platforms, all instinctively cautious about being the one to say the uncomfortable thing, is not automatically well-equipped for that moment.

    Jersey has its new government. The hospital contract is signed. The Chief Minister question will be resolved on 19 June. Whatever happens next, Sunday’s result suggests that the island wants steady hands on the wheel, and will hold them to account for what those hands actually build.

    Jon Bond is Founder and CEO of Evans Bond Limited, an accountancy and advisory practice in Guernsey, and principal of Melius Consulting Limited – a business consultancy. He is also a non-executive chairman of CI Co-op and NED at Sark Shipping. The views expressed here are his own.

  • Watching Jersey Vote: What the 2026 Election Tells Us About Small Island Politics

    Watching Jersey Vote: What the 2026 Election Tells Us About Small Island Politics

    Jersey goes to the polls on Sunday 7 June with 92 candidates fighting for 49 seats. From across the water, the campaign raises questions that are just as relevant in Guernsey – about governance, affordability, and what it actually means to run a small island well.

    I should say upfront: I am not a Jersey voter. I live and work in Guernsey, and my interest in Sunday’s election is that of an engaged neighbour, someone who believes that what happens in Jersey tends, eventually, to matter on this side of the water too.

    But I’ve spent time reading the official manifesto booklet, all 92 candidates across three tiers of government, and what strikes me most is how familiar it all sounds. The pressures Jersey is grappling with in 2026 are not uniquely Jersey problems. They are small island problems. If we’re honest, they are Guernsey problems too.

    The Numbers, First

    The scale of this election is worth reflecting on. On Sunday, our island cousins can vote for up to nine Senators (island-wide), one Connétable (parish-level), and between two and four Deputies (constituency-level). That’s three separate ballot papers, up to 14 votes, and 92 candidates to navigate.

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    Candidates StandingSeats AvailableCandidates for 9 Senate Seats

    Almost every candidate is standing as an independent. The sole exception is Reform Jersey, the only organised political party in the States Assembly, whose leader Sam Mézec heads the Senatorial ballot and whose candidates stand in most constituencies.

    It is also worth noting that automatic voter registration was introduced for this election — you no longer need to sign up. Anyone aged 16+ who has lived in Jersey for 12 months (or 6 months plus 5 years total) is automatically added to the register. You don’t need to be a British citizen. Jersey is running one of the more progressive franchise models in the British Isles.

    What Everyone Is Saying

    Read all 17 Senatorial manifestos back to back and a strange thing happens: they start to blur. Not because the candidates lack individuality, some are striking, but because the policy agenda is remarkably convergent. Almost everyone wants to:

    💷 Reduce the Cost of Living

    GST on food, freight import charges, fuel duty, supermarket competition – nearly universal concern.
    Strongest: Breckon, Kersten Guthrie, Mézec

    🏠 Fix the Housing Crisis

    First-time buyers, planning reform, affordable rentals, brownfield development.
    Strongest: Mézec, Miles, Place

    📊 Control Government Spending

    Waste, IT overspend, public sector efficiency, reserves rebuilding.
    Strongest: Breckon, Place, MacLean, Millar

    🏦 Grow the Economy

    Financial services competitiveness, AI and fintech sectors, inward investment.
    Strongest: Gorst, MacLean, Farnham

    🏥 Deliver Health Reform

    New hospital (still unbuilt), prevention-first approach, integrated primary care.
    Strongest: Binet, Place, Millar

    🌿 Protect the Environment

    PFAS water contamination, marine protected areas, green space, Island Plan.
    Strongest: Luce, de Faye, Gorst

    The convergence is both reassuring and troubling. Reassuring because there’s genuine political consensus on the major challenges. Troubling because when everyone agrees on the problems but the problems persist anyway, you have to ask: why?

    The Candidates Who Stand Out

    With 17 people chasing 9 seats, differentiation matters. Here is how I’d characterise the Senatorial field, not as voting recommendations, but as a guide to the distinct voices on offer.

    Senatorial Candidates — Characterisation
    Candidate Background Key Pitch Standout Feature
    Lyndon Farnham Chief Minister (incumbent) Stability and continuity; Capital Investment Fund; infrastructure The only candidate who has experience as chief minister
    Sam Mézec Housing Minister; Reform Jersey leader First Step homeownership; renter protections; united manifesto Sole party candidate – you know exactly what you’re getting
    Ian Gorst External Relations Minister Financial services competitiveness programme; fiscal restraint Jersey’s most experienced international diplomat
    Elaine Millar Former Treasury Minister, first female Viscount Reinstated the Senator role; cut GP costs; Pension Plus Has experience from Treasury – rare for a first full term
    Alan MacLean Former Econ Dev & Treasury Minister Anti-inflation strategy; AI, fintech, medical tourism Created Digital Jersey and Locate Jersey – returning from private sector
    Helen Miles Former Justice Minister; 30yr public service Freight import reform; 50% affordable waterfront housing Broadest policy range; evidence-based across multiple areas
    Tom Binet Former Health Minister (previously Infrastructure) Health digitisation; prevention-first; hospital progress Proposed a successful vote of no-confidence in his own government
    Bernard Place Nursing and public services background “Not a manifesto of promises — a programme for delivery” The only candidate to explicitly say the public workforce must shrink over time
    Steve Luce Environment Minister (incumbent) Island Plan reform; marine areas; PFAS; farming and fishing The only candidate primarily focused on the physical future of Jersey
    Alan Breckon Former States Member Cut IT waste; remove GST from food; Tourism Board Called out £60m IT budget – arrived without a website or banners
    Serena Kersten Guthrie Elite sports professional Value Jersey priorities: cheaper choices, less waste, rebooted economy Most unusual candidate – applies performance coaching culture to politics

    The Policy Breadth Test

    One useful lens for evaluating candidates is how broadly their manifesto engages with Jersey’s challenges. A Senator represents the whole island, not just one issue. I’ve scored each Senatorial candidate across seven policy dimensions, from cost of living to environment, based on the emphasis and detail in their official manifesto.

    Senatorial Candidates – Policy Breadth Score
    Total score out of 35 across 7 themes. Higher = broader engagement across issue areas.

    Helen Miles
    Cost · Housing · Economy · Health · Safety
    21
    Sam Mézec
    Housing · CoL · Economy · Young People
    20
    Bernard Place
    Fiscal · Housing · Health · Delivery
    20
    Lyndon Farnham
    Stability · Housing · Economy · Infra
    19
    Serena Kersten Guthrie
    CoL · Fiscal · Young People
    19
    Mark Boleat
    Economy · CoL · Housing · Balance
    19
    Elaine Millar
    Fiscal · Economy · CoL · Health
    18
    Alan MacLean
    Economy · Fiscal · CoL · Growth
    18
    Mary Le Hegarat
    Tax framework · Fiscal · Housing
    18
    Ian Gorst
    Finance sector · Fiscal · Environment
    17
    Alan Le Pavoux
    Young People · Community · Charities
    16
    Martin Aliga
    Inclusion · Young People · Health
    15
    Tom Binet
    Health · Fiscal · Economy
    15
    Steve Luce
    Environment · Planning · Farming
    14
    Alan Breckon
    Fiscal scrutiny · CoL · GST
    14
    Karl Busch
    Community wellbeing · Social enterprise
    12
    Guy de Faye
    PFAS · Elderly care
    9

    This is not a ranking of quality. Tom Binet, for instance, has one of the most coherent positions in the field on a subject that genuinely matters, and Guy de Faye was talking about PFAS for years before anyone listened. But breadth does matter when you’re electing someone to vote on everything from planning law to the Social Security budget.

    The Issue That Connects Both Islands

    Here is where I confess a particular interest that goes beyond good neighbourly feeling.

    Several Jersey candidates are calling for GST to be removed from food. Alan Breckon puts the cost at approximately £10 million, and argues it is achievable given the fiscal headroom Jersey expects from rising GST receipts by 2029. Mark Le Chevalier, running for Connétable of St Helier, adds medicines to that list. Multiple candidates cite rising food prices over the last five years as a primary driver of household stress.

    Meanwhile, Guernsey is debating whether to introduce GST in the first place.

    The GST Parallel

    Jersey introduced GST in 2008 at 3%, now at 5%. It generates significant revenue — projected to exceed £140 million annually by 2029. It also generates significant political friction: enough that removing it from food staples is now a mainstream electoral promise. Guernsey should be watching this closely before reaching any conclusions about our own fiscal options.

    I’m not making an argument here for or against a Guernsey GST, that deserves its own post when there is more clarity about how Guernsey considers this issue, but the lived experience of Jersey’s electorate in 2026 is directly relevant evidence. When a mature, functional GST regime produces enough political pressure to feature in practically every election manifesto, that tells you something about what a small island population will and will not tolerate.

    The Hospital Problem

    The new Jersey hospital may be the most important single test case for what effective small island government looks like, or doesn’t.

    The project has been in some form of planning, delay, controversy, and restart for over a decade. Hundreds of millions of pounds have been committed. The site has been selected, reconsidered, and reselected. And as of election week 2026, a construction contract has still not been signed.

    Tom Binet, who has been Health Minister during this current term and is arguably the candidate with the most direct ownership of the hospital file, says site preparation is continuing and contract finalisation is close. I hope he is right. But the fact that “contract not yet signed” is still the position four years into a term, and that this features in virtually every candidate’s manifesto as evidence of government’s inability to deliver, tells you something about the scale of the challenge.

    The Hospital Timeline – In Brief
    Period Status Political Context
    Pre-2018 Site selection controversy Multiple locations proposed and rejected; public debate ongoing
    2018–2022 Planning and design phase Overhill site selected after extensive process; cost estimates revised repeatedly
    2022 Previous government collapses Vote of no confidence; new government under Farnham from January 2024
    2024–2026 Site preparation ongoing Binet as Health Minister moves project forward; construction contract pending
    June 2026 Contract not yet signed Features as failure of delivery across most Senatorial manifestos

    Guernsey has its own major infrastructure decisions ahead. The hospital situation in Jersey is a case study in what happens when political complexity, shifting governments, and structural indecision intersect with a project that simply has to happen. The lesson is less about the hospital itself and more about institutional capacity to deliver.

    The Party Question

    In every mature democracy, and in most of our near neighbours, elections are organised around parties with collective manifestos, collective accountability, and the ability to form coherent governments.

    Jersey’s allergy to party politics is well-documented and genuinely interesting. It stems from a culture of independent representation, a parish system that predates modern parliamentary democracy, and a certain Channel Island instinct for pragmatism over ideology.

    But there is a practical problem with running a government of independents: collective delivery is hard. When every minister was elected on their own individual platform, and their loyalty is ultimately to their own constituents rather than to any governing programme, coherence suffers.

    Reform Jersey, love or loathe their politics, operates differently. They have a collective manifesto at reformjersey.je, a shared track record they are willing to be judged on, and candidates who are explicitly running as a team. That is not the norm in Jersey. It may, over time, become more of one.

    What I’m Watching on Sunday

    A few things will be particularly telling when the results come in:

    Reform Jersey’s performance

    Island-wide indicator

    Sam Mézec’s personal vote and the Reform Jersey Deputy results will signal whether organised party politics is gaining or losing ground. A strong showing could accelerate a structural shift in how the States Assembly works.

    Incumbents’ survival

    Gorst, Millar, Farnham

    The current government is asking for a mandate to continue. Whether experienced ministers Gorst, Millar, and Farnham all get in — and whether they end up in the same government again — will shape the policy direction for four years.

    The outsider candidacies

    Kersten Guthrie, Place, Aliga

    New voices with unconventional backgrounds. Serena Kersten Guthrie (elite sport), Bernard Place (nursing/public services), and Martin Aliga (inclusion advocate) all bring something different. Whether the electorate wants different is always the question.

    Turnout

    Democratic health check

    Automatic voter registration is new. Whether it translates to higher turnout — especially among younger residents — will be a significant data point for democratic reform across both islands.

    The View From Guernsey

    I started by saying this is familiar. Let me be specific about why.

    The top concerns in Jersey’s 2026 election – cost of living, housing affordability, government efficiency, healthcare capacity, and a sense that things are promised more often than they are delivered, are the same concerns I hear in Guernsey. Not similar. The same.

    We face our own housing pressures, our own fiscal debates, our own infrastructure decisions, and our own questions about what lean, effective government for a small island actually looks like. The difference is that Jersey is having those debates very publicly, through an election campaign that at least forces candidates to articulate a position and be judged on it.

    Whatever the result on Sunday, Jersey will have a government by next week. The hospital question will have to be answered. The housing supply will have to be addressed. And the cost of living, which no single government in any island jurisdiction has fully cracked, will remain the defining test of political credibility.

    From Guernsey, I’ll be watching with genuine interest.

    Jon Bond is Founder and CEO of Evans Bond Limited, an accountancy and advisory practice in Guernsey, and principal of Melius Consulting Limited – a business consultancy. He is also a non-executive chairman of CI Co-op and NED at Sark Shipping. The views expressed here are his own.

    Sources: Jersey Election Authority, Official Candidate Manifesto Booklet 2026 (vote.je). All candidate positions are drawn directly from published manifestos. Policy scoring reflects emphasis and detail in the manifesto text, not personal endorsement. Readers are encouraged to read the full manifesto booklet at vote.je.