Introduction
Coming up to the halfway mark of 2026, and the Channel Islands economy continues to resist easy characterisation. The headline numbers look stable. The texture underneath is more interesting and, in some places, more concerning, than the broad brush suggests.
I’ve been involved in leading financial services businesses in Guernsey for over 15 years, and sitting on the boards of CI Co-op and Sark Shipping gives me a vantage point that I think is worth sharing.
These are not forecasts. They’re observations from someone paying close attention.
Signal 1: Supply Chains are Fragile
The narrative that post-pandemic supply chain disruption is “fixed” doesn’t hold up in a small island context. Lead times to the Channel Islands for specialist supplies remain longer and less predictable than they were in 2019.
Businesses that have adapted — by carrying more stock, diversifying suppliers, or redesigning their service offerings are noticeably more resilient. Those who assumed a return to pre-2020 norms are still being caught out. The lesson here isn’t specific to islands. But islands make the lesson visible faster.
Signal 2: The Talent Pipeline is Narrowing
Finding mid-level professional talent in Guernsey has become materially harder in the past 18 months. This is partly demographic, a smaller cohort moving through the local pipeline, and partly the result of increased competition from remote-work opportunities that didn’t exist five years ago.
The best people have more options. That’s good for them and requires genuine creative thinking from employers who want to attract and keep them. Retention strategies that worked in 2019 – stability, island lifestyle, modest salary premium, need updating.
Signal 3: Consumer Behaviour has Shifted Permanently
The “island premium” – the willingness of local consumers to pay more for local goods and services because of limited alternatives, is being eroded by e-commerce and changing expectations. This isn’t a crisis, but it is a structural shift. Businesses whose pricing assumed a captive local market should be modelling different scenarios.
Signal 4: Digital Adoption is Uneven
Some Guernsey businesses have accelerated their digital capability significantly over the past three years. Others have barely moved. The gap between these two groups is now visible in trading performance, client acquisition, and staff expectations.
This is not primarily a technology problem. It’s a leadership problem. The businesses falling behind are almost always led by people who view digital investment as a cost rather than a capability.
Signal 5: Community Institutions are the Overlooked Infrastructure
Local charities and faith organisations don’t appear in economic forecasts. They should. These institutions provide social and operational infrastructure that a small island economy could not replace. Their resilience is a precondition for everything else.
Business leaders who don’t engage with and support these organisations are, whether they know it or not, free-riding on a system they’re not contributing to.
Conclusion
None of these signals is cause for alarm. But together they describe an economy that needs proactive leadership from business owners, board members, and community institutions to navigate well.
I’ll be writing about each of these in more detail over the coming months. If you have a perspective from your own sector, I’d genuinely like to hear from you.
Jon Bond is Founder and CEO of Evans Bond Limited, an accountancy and advisory practice in Guernsey, and principal of Melius Consulting Limited – a business consultancy. He is also a non-executive chairman of CI Co-op and NED at Sark Shipping. The views expressed here are his own.
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